Authors
David L Smith, Justin M Cohen, Christinah Chiyaka, Geoffrey Johnston, Peter W Gething, Roly Gosling, Caroline O Buckee, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Simon I Hay, Andrew J Tatem
Publication date
2013/8/5
Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume
368
Issue
1623
Pages
20120145
Publisher
The Royal Society
Description
Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination's ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
DL Smith, JM Cohen, C Chiyaka, G Johnston… - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B …, 2013